NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 occurs on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag falls at two p.m. ET, and every corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked trail where passing is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next victory of this 2019 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He’s got a win at Bristol under his belt and is recorded at 14-1 to win in the most current 2019 Food City 500 odds. But, there are just six drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Bristol chances better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is your preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you create your own 2019 Food City 500 choices, visit the NASCAR in Bristol predictions in the proven computer version at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and current results into consideration.

The version is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four competition from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top . It was also all over Kyle Busch as a top contender in the TicketGuardian 500 and four of those drivers in McClure’s top five went on to top-five finishes in the Auto Club 400. Anyone who has followed its selections is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. His version mimicked the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you that the version is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot 14-1 NASCAR in Bristol chances.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and only his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this track among active NASCAR drivers. That includes a victory last August in the NASCAR at Bristol race for his 30th career victory in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion fought his way into the front of the package from the ninth starting position because race and has also already come in the 27th and 13th starting places to win at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR seen Bristol and certainly will again start 27th on Sunday. He’s off to a hot start this year too, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash in Daytona and third in Atlanta.

Along with a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the best Vegas favorites in 12-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better values than the 12-1 premium he is commanding.

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