Sports Betting Math
Most people who wish to put bets on sports are fans to start with. It isn’t unheard of for a gambler to place some sports stakes, especially during big games such as the Super Bowl or the NCAA basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports bettors are sports lovers seeking to utilize their understanding of a game or even of a game’s players to make a little additional cash. Being a fan of a specific sport, a staff, a school or professional squad–these are all precursors to placing sports bet. Sports gambling is also a way for a lover to get in on the actions of this sport, with something more than self-respect in stake.
All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the mathematics behind the game, you understand the sport and can give yourself an edge. For many matches, like penny stocks or badly placed blackjack stakes, are so poor that smart bettors earn their benefit by avoiding them completely. In sports betting, the math is more complex. Based upon your favourite game, you may have to consider matters such as bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and harms with the same fervor additional connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.
So how hard is sports betting math? The math behind putting a winning bet is rather complicated, but the best way to keep in front of the bookmaker is quite straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you are going to break even. We’ll have more information on this number after, for example why it requires more than 50% wins to break even, but some general understanding about sports betting and the numbers behind it.
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Sports Betting Basics
The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you drift into the sportsbook to check up on the most recent news about the game. As you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with a few humorous numbers on it. It looks like this:
428 Cowboys +175
429 Redskins -4 -200 38
Some of this is simple enough to read. The Redskins -4 means the Redskins are favored to win and have to do so by at least 5 points to get a wager on the’Skins to cover out. The next number (-200) is that the moneyline, in this event the Redskins really are a 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the total, the over/under of this anticipated variety of points scored in the game.
More on Placing Sports Bets
Look at the over/under number, in this case 38. In the event that you or your buddy thinks this will be a particularly low or high scoring game, according to your understanding of this group’s crimes and defenses, or advice about a hurt participant or bad playing conditions, you can place a bet on the total of points scored.
So just how is a man supposed to understand how to literally put down a sports bet? You need to know three things:
#1 — the Kind of wager you want to make #2 — the amount of the corresponding group You’ve chosen and
#3 — the amount you wish to wager Knowing everything ahead provides the ticket writer the details he needs to write the ticket without needing to bend over backwards to process your wager.
Tipping and Sports Betting
We haven’t even gotten to the meat of this sports math yet, and we’re already talking about leaning the staff behind the window? Yep. Here’s the reason why.
If you put two $100 bets, and you win, you are going to amass $440. You need to consider leaving a tip around five per cent of your winnings. Yes, that is a $22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and surely you can spring for a twenty-spot for the guy who helped you win it. If you tip about the five per cent mark frequently, when you win, you’re way more likely to get free drinks, which will be about all you are likely to get comp-wise at the sportsbook.
So, back to the basic math of sports gambling. You and your friend, after much deliberation, pick to every place a $100 wager on your favorite team. What now?
To bet the Redskins using the point spread, your bet is called»laying the points» For your wager to pay off, the’Skins have to win by five or even more to cover the spread. Bear in mind, if the’Skins win exactly four, the game is a push, and both sides recoup their bet. Another alternative is called»taking the things» using the Cowboys. That means the Cowboys must lose by three or less for your wager to win, or when the Cowboys win outright. So you and your friend go up to place your $100 wager, and you determine that the standard straight bet in any given bookie pays 11/10. That means you’ve got to bet $110 in the event that you want to win $100. You and your buddy pay the bookie $110 and sit down with drinks to watch your bets come in.
These are simple bets. Deceptively since they make it resemble the results of the soccer game is like the outcome of choosing marbles out of a bag. Place a black marble and 2 white marbles in a bag, pull out one randomly, and there’s your football match. In the end, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.
But we, as sports fans, know that the math of a sporting event is a whole lot more complicated. Sports bettors deeply involved in their own hobby will subscribe to weather bulletins from important cities which take part in their sport, making huge wagering decisions based on a couple of miles of wind in 1 direction or another. Then there’s the unknown–does a player get hurt in the first quarter? Does weather turned into a factor? Is a specific player»in the zone?»
How Do Bookies Make a Profit?
Just as we finish ruminating on the concept of the challenging mathematics at play in the background of important sporting events, we’re going to turn back towards the simpler side of sports gambling. Bookies make a gain due to vigorish. What is vigorish?
Look at the above example again. You and your friend each paid $10 to the bookie to place your bet. That is exactly what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet that the Cowboys and your buddy bet the Redskins, a total of 220 bet. The sportsbook must pay $210 into the winner, leaving a good $10 profit regardless of what happens on the soccer field. That $10 built-in gain is called the vigorish, and it’s the final monkey wrench in the gears of sports gambling.
Evidently, sportsbooks are going to take over two bets on any game, but this instance is for simplicity’s sake. Taking a look at the total number of stakes on different games over the course of a week and adjusting the moneyline and other amounts is another way the bookie produces a profit. Fixing the odds a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the balance of beats and make the publication more inclined to turn a profit no matter what.
Basically, a bookie is someone who holds on to money from bettors then pays them whenever they win and keeps their money if they don’t. That is exactly what the job is boiled down to its essence.
When a bookie sets odds for matches, he’ll establish what bookies call an»over round» to his group of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is»the juice.» For the sake of simplicity, let us look at a boxing game where the two contenders are equally gifted, of equal prestige, etc.. Since they have an equal probability of winning, a casual wager may be even money. You put $20 on one man; your friend puts $20 on another. Whichever fighter wins awards that the bettor with the total of 40.
Bookies do not offer even cash like friends in a casual betting situation. In the above example, with two evenly matched fighters, a wise bookie provides 5/6 chances for each. That way, a 10 winning bet would only return $8.30 and your bet. What does this do to the bookmaker? He can float an equivalent sum of money on both fighters, winning no matter which fighter really wins. Should they choose $1,000 worth of bets on a single fighter and $1,000 on the other, the bookie would require in $1,000 but just have to pay $830, for a guaranteed $170 profit whatever the outcome.
Bookies look at the weight of their books all of the time and fix odds and other variables to be certain their books balance. Though it isn’t feasible to completely balance a book, bookies that move too far out on one side run the chance of losing money, and losing money in gambling is the quickest way to find yourself in another industry. Each one of these factors are why bookies generally root for the underdog–too many favorites winning at a sport with a short season (like the NFL) can cause a bookmaker to lose money, while a lot of upsets (such as you normally see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for your bookmaker.
The short answer here is that bookies earning money has nothing whatsoever to do with your own gaming. It is almost unheard of for a single client to be allowed to place enough stakes to sink a single book on his own. High rollers in sport gambling get exceptional privileges concerning their maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with all the bettor’s luck–maximums get increased following the bettor sees large losses and decreased (sharply) when the bettor starts to get blessed.
In short, a sportsbook’s profits are not necessarily affected right by how an individual bet is called. Unlike casino games or slot machines, where it is you against the house, sports bettors gas that the bookmaker’s company and only rarely is a single bettor betting from the bookie.
Sports Betting Odds
Remember at the start when we talked about the magic amount essential to guarantee a break-even week in sports betting? If you read enough about sports betting, you are going to hear this amount repeated often: 52.4%. If a bettor can win 52.4% of his bets, he’ll break even. Where does this number come from?
When betting the spread, you get odds of -110. Sometimes, sportsbooks will offer a -105 lineup for a marketing or to welcome new enterprise. But for the most part, in case you’re betting the spread, you’re getting -110.
We draw that 52.4% break even quantity right out of the chances. -110 is equivalent to 11/10. That means if you bet 21 games, you’d have to win eleven of them and lose ten of them to break completely even. At -105, you would still have to win an astounding 51.2% of the time just to break even.
If you do not trust the basic mathematics behind this break-even principle, then look at another real-world example. Let’s say you get into sports betting after your Cowboys cream the Redskins and you go home with a great fat wallet. Then you bet on the subsequent 10 Cowboys matches, winning six times and losing four times.
This 60% gambling record (with the odds of -110 that is standard for against the spread stakes in soccer ) will leave you with a gain of $160. Think about it–your $600 gain from your 6 winning stakes minus the $440 you dropped on losing bets leaves $160. It required you 1,100 to win $160, meaning you need to wager $6.87 to win $1 on average. So you see the small differences between a 52.4% winning rate and a 60% winning speed –inside people 7.3 percentage points is located countless dollars in profit.
Now imagine instead that you misplaced among these six winning stakes, leaving you with a 50% gambling record. You spent a total of 1,100, won $500, and lost $550. That means overall your 50% record drained your pocket by $50. That’s where the vigorish will get you. Not even winning half of the time is great enough to break even in sport betting.
Professional Sports Bettors
Believe it or not, some folks really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or at certain other marginal job in the casino industry, but there’s a group of players who wager on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads following the last piece of this article, it is difficult to imagine anyone attempting to do so for a living.
If you are aware that a 52.4% record will mean you break , the easiest way to turn sports gambling into a profession is to bet enough to ensure a 53% winning record will probably bring in the type of money that you want to make.
Another instance. Following your successful Cowboys experimentation, you choose to spend $10,000 in sports betting over the first four months of the following football season. That $10,000 is set aside to acquire or shed sportsbooks.
You plan on betting on 160 games throughout your investment interval. You dream of a 55% winning record as your win-loss using a 55% winning record would provide you an 88-72 record. That is an expected gain of +8.8 units. How did we get to this number? To calculate your components, subtract the total of your losses (multiplied by 1.1 to incorporate the vig) out of your wins and you’ll receive your unit profit.
Placing $460 stakes on every one of these games, a number pulled from a quick and dirty math about how much you could afford to wager in one week’s NFL play without blowing your bankroll, could result in a $4,048 gain if you keep this 55% winning record. Turning $10,000 to $14,048 in just four weeks is an investment return of 40.48%. I dare you to ask your bank for this kind of return in your savings accounts.
But that’s all assuming that you can select the winner 55% of the time. Do your research, check into the records of professional sports gamblers. 55%, although not impossible, would put one of the elite sports bettors from the country, if not the world.
Professional sports bettors need to worry about variance more than every other kind of gambler. Working against the forces of variance means handling your bankroll over the duration of this season to avert the negative possibilities that may totally drain your wagering account. Professional sports bettors have enough resources and time required to calculate these variances, and there are a few pieces of software out there which may help you figure out your perfect stake in the face of negative variance. But the most important thing is that professional sports bettors might dream of having a 55% winning record, simply because it ensures you’re beating the home.
FURTHER INFO NOTE:
Pro bettors make their money on bets that sportsbooks provide that give them the smallest betting advantage. The key to becoming a profitable sports bettor is being able to locate advantages, opportunities where the line a publication is offering is vulnerable.
This is the reason why many long-term sports bettors are math freaks. Good sports bettors understand statistics, especially what are called inferential statistics, although any greater math can help when it is time to place a wager.
Here is what an expert baseball bettor can do in his mind. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all kinds of bloggers, data archives( and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a specific statistic pop out. For example: whenever the home team starts a left-handed pitcher daily following a loss, that group wins 59 percent of their time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their mind or quite fast on paper. From that bit of advice comes a new betting theory–look for game scenarios that mirror the preceding example and wager on them. Meaning he will only bet games in which the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Can he simply jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical investigation is required–he might find that this is a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trusted statistics, or he can find an even more advantageous bet based upon his original concept.
Pro sports bettors also keep near-obsessive recordings of the bets. Evidently, no advantage in sports gambling lasts longer than one game. Taking proper records will also help you test concepts, like the preceding one about left-handed pitchers and losses. Without taking good documents, no sports bettor’s bankroll will last very long.
What’s a Good Record for Sports Bettors
So, in the end of the day, what would you call a»great» record for a sports bettor? Most casual gamblers searching into sports gambling see a pro advertising his 1100-900 record and shake their mind a bit. How could this kind of abysmal record be something to be proud of? That is a 55% winning percentage, and it suggests to those in the know this bettor is actually turning a profit putting bets on sports. A fantastic record to get a sports bettor isn’t any record equivalent to or larger than 52.4 percent, since that amount or anything higher means you are not losing money. A 53% winning record, although not impressive on paper, means you’re really beating the sportsbook and putting money back in your pocket. Consult your buddies that play the slots or play online poker how frequently they wind up putting money back into their pocket.
A -110 bet, standard for spread bets in the NFL, gives the house a built-in benefit of 10%. This means that even if you do win, and you line up to collect your $100, a few sucker supporting you only spent $10 to hand the casino $100.
A good record for sport bettors is any record that guarantees that they break-even. Should you bet 16 matches this NFL season and you won 9 and lost 7, you probably made money. And taking money away from a casino is obviously a thing to be proud of.
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