To Win, You Need To Bet the Better Team
Statistically, the bettor will bet favorites. That’s a major mistake, and here is why.
First, the average bettor tends to overstate the relative potency of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers know is that there is actually enormous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player in a position and also the worst.
When a group of marginally worse players is much more motivated than a group of slightly superior gamers that an outright upset is possible. Most certainly, it is potential for the»inferior» group to cover the point spread.
Second, the point spread tends to nullify any evident scrimmage edge (power or skill benefit ) a group has over its opponent. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, by way of instance, there were 167 games where the point spread was seven points or more (games where one group’s advantage over the following was perceived to be sizable). Though the underdog won only 36 of these games outright (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the matches (while linking it six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.
Third, by betting an underdog, you have a significant part of sport strategy on your side. NFL teams do their very best to win a match. Accordingly, in the last few minutes of a match, a team that is leading seldom takes much danger to score additional points. Instead, it targets hanging on to its lead. The group that is dropping, on the other hand, usually tries to score till the bitter end. When a bettor has obtained a favorite that is beforehand but not covering five minutes or less to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.
In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I’ve yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who does not bet largely underdogs.
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