This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with two name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite competitions to pursue so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest money game punt of time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds from JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that cost she allows you to cover up for some heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other spots to win using a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -495 for this fight. The most likely outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at least one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can’t have much time at the game left. I think we role with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. I believe he’s a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I would be worried about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he has never knocked out anybody, so I believe we have a good floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing because I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I think he lands several takedowns in this battle and may win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57% accuracy, and when he is getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he is going to be going for even greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and I believe he has a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a few fighters this week , but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t believe she can win, because she for certain can, and I believe she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we would require a complete from her in this struggle to get 10x that wages and I think that is quite unlikely to happen. Or, she will want FightMetric to rely all her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points and that has been contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much greater rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be sufficient here to place her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price label. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and also give my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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