Milwaukee Brewers
Rather than risk disappointment in 2019, the Milwaukee Brewers kept the pedal to the proverbial metal after a 96-win 2018 campaign.
They made a huge update at catcher by registering Yasmani Grandal. They also reinserted Mike Moustakas in their infield. Along with reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw and Jesus Aguilar, the lineup is among the league’s greatest.
When there’s a red flag in Milwaukee, it worries the club’s lack of a No. 1 starter. That wasn’t a problem in 2018, nevertheless, and the Brewers have the starting pitching overwhelming and depth bullpen for the same in 2019.
Such as the NL East, the National League Central is deeper than it was a year ago. Yet, these Brewers have 95-win upside that could net them either a branch crown or even a wild-card spot.
Playoff opportunities: 70 percent
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are projected to finish last in the NL Central by Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system, and they’re not happy about it.
To be fair, they did win 95 games last year. And they are going into 2019 with a healthful Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez at the middle of a lineup that is oozing with upside. A beginning five of Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish has loads of upside down in its own right.
But at least till Brandon Morrow is retrieved from knee operation, the bullpen is a clear weakness. And as the crime has explosive potential, it will be accomplished only if Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Ian Happ make the strides which were expected of them in 2018.
Though the Cubs probably won’t be the worst team in the NL Central this year, their playoff chances nonetheless seem as a toss-up.
Playoff opportunities: 50 percent
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals responded appropriately to missing out on the 2018 postseason with 88 wins.
Their big move was to include MVP-caliber slugger Paul Goldschmidt into a lineup that was good enough to score 4.7 runs per game without him. Additionally they built a leaky bullpen using Andrew Miller.
It is nevertheless fair to be concerned about the volatility within the pitching staff. Neither Miller nor Luke Gregerson was healthy last year, and Jordan Hicks’ results were less impressive than his stuff. In the meantime, Carlos Martinez has run afoul of the injury insect.
If the pitching staff holds together better than expected, the NL Central crown will probably be inside the Cards’ reach. Otherwise, it is going to be a battle.
Playoff chances: 40 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates
If the Pittsburgh Pirates are likely to improve on last year’s up-and-down road to 82 wins, then it’ll be due to their pitching.
Somewhat quietly, Pirates hurlers put a 3.52 ERA in the second half of 2018. Virtually All the key contributors–namely Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Felipe Vazquez and Richard Rodriguez–are back to maintain runs in a premium in 2019.
It’s too bad the front office did virtually nothing to improve a weak crime. It is going to be around the incumbents–particularly Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson and, when healthy, Gregory Polanco–to induce an improvement on that, and they can not have the capacity to make it happen.
Barring any surprises, the Pirates will be hard-pressed to crack the top three of the NL Central.
Playoff chances: 10 percent
Cincinnati Reds
Despite losing 95 games in 2018, the Cincinnati Reds took the novel approach of attempting to build a winner in the offseason.
Consequently a batch of fresh stars headlined from Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. They figure to improve the offense that relied too heavily on Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett as well as a rotation with an NL-worst 5.28 ERA since 2017.
However, Cincinnati’s new improvements arguably have more title value than star power. The pitchers are in particular trouble, as they have to compete with Great American Ball Park and a feeble defense.
The Reds are certainly better than they were a year before, but they are in basically the same boat as the Pirates.
Playoff opportunities: 10 percent
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